Thursday, February 19, 2009

OSCAR PREDICTIONS, ETC.

Not real gung ho about the Academy Awards this year, only a handful of films & performances I liked are up for trophies, but since I've been asked here's what
I think/hope will happen (Sometimes I just can't separate what I want from what
I predict!)
BEST PICTURE : I simply can't pick the odds on favorite when "The CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON" was so vastly superior to the other nominees. A part of me actually believes that 'BB' is more the type of film the Academy feels is 'Best Picture' worthy than the low budget/amateurish 'Slumdog', so my prediction & my hope is for
"BENJAMIN BUTTON"
BEST ACTOR : SEAN PENN. It's as simply as this - he isn't a gay man, just he played this part without a hint of hetero in him - the competition played a steroid abusing freak, which is what the actor is in real life. Should be no contest. Again predicting who I want - SEAN PENN.
BEST ACTRESS : I've seen enough of the B.S. to convince me they are going to give it to KATE WINSLET, which is a shame. I think ANGELINA JOLIE deserves it. & MERYL STREEP gave the best performance of her career in 'Doubt'. But unfortunately I believe the Academy will give it to KATE WINSLET because she wasn't Gawdawful in 'The Reader'.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR : HEATH LEDGER Will win/deserves to win.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS : Wow, what a dog category this is! I'm going with PENELOPE CRUZ simply because she was in a Woody Allen film & its been a while since Oscar has smiled on one of its favorite over-rated sons. If I were selecting from these 5 nominees, I'd give it to AMY ADAMS, hands down. I liked Taraji P. Henson as well, but DOUBT's cast deserves a win.
DIRECTOR : It's a toss-up, but I'm going against the norm (Best Picture/Best Director
go hand-in-hand) & I'm going to say they give THIS award to DANNY BOYLE, even though DAVID FINCHER made a much, much better film...

RATING THE NOMINEES. (If they're not listed, I didn't see the performance)
PICTURE #1 BENJAMIN BUTTON #2 MILK #3 FROST/NIXON #4 The READER #5 SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE
ACTOR #1 SEAN PENN #2 RICHARD JENKINS #3 FRANK LANGELLA #4 BRAD PITT
ACTRESS #1 ANGELINA JOLIE #2 MERYL STREEP #3 ANNE HATHAWAY #4 KATE WINSLET
SUPP. ACTOR #1 HEATH LEDGER #2 ROBERT DOWNEY, JR. #3 PHILIP SEYMOUR HOFFMAN
#4 MICHAEL SHANNON #5 JOSH BROLIN
DIRECTOR #1 DAVID FINCHER #2 RON HOWARD #3 DANNY BOYLE #4 GUS VAN SANT
#5 STEPHEN DALDRY (Reasons - Fincher made a remarkable film to watch / Howard took a dull story & somehow made it interesting / Boyle's film was ambitious, even though I didn't care for it / Van Sant focused too much on 'Gay Rights' & not enough on Harvey's relationship with his eventual murderer / Daldry took a great story & made it difficutl to watch pedophilic porn - blows my mind that he's nominated & Clint Eastwood, who made two of the best films of the year isn't.

OKAY, LET'S GO AHEAD & PUT MY LAME PICKS OUT THERE - Get ready to scoff, because a lot of these films were not well received by the critics...
IF IT WERE MY JOB TO NAME THE 5 NOMINEES IN THE MAJOR CATEGORIES, THEY WOULD BE...
BEST PICTURE: AUSTRALIA / CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON / DEFIANCE / DOUBT / GRAN TORINO
ACTOR : DANIEL CRAIG (Defiance) / PHILIP SEYMOUR HOFFMAN* (Doubt) / HUGH JACKMAN (Australia) / RICHARD JENKINS (The Visitor) / SEAN PENN (Milk)
*He was the co-star of that film, let's be honest
ACTRESS : I have no problem with the 5 actual nominees, I wouldn't change them.
SUPP. ACTOR : ROBERT DOWNEY, JR. (Tropic Thunder) / BRENDAN GLEESON (In Bruges) /
HEATH LEDGER (The Dark Knight) / BILL NIGHY (Valkyrie) / MICHAEL SHANNON (Revolutionary Road)
SUPP. ACTRESS : HIAM ABBASS (The Visitor) / AMY ADAMS (Doubt) / TARAJI P. HENSON (Benjamin Button) / FRANCIS McDORMANT (Burn After Reading) / BETTE MIDLER (Then She Found Me)
DIRECTOR : CLINT EASTWOOD (Changeling/Gran Torino) / DAVID FINCHER (Benjamin Button) / BAZ LUHRMANN (Australia) / JOHN PATRICK SHANLEY (Doubt) / EDWARD ZWICK (Defiance)
BEST CARTOON - I liked BOLT much more than WALL-E (Though the latter will win)
BEST DOCUMENTARY - Wasn't even nominated! 'RELIGULOUS' is trhe best doc I've ever seen - enlightening & laugh-out-loud humorous. See it, America, we need to start wising up in this country.
I welcome your comments - ridicule my picks, I won't care. I liked what you disliked & I gave my reasons - I disliked what you liked & I had my reasons, so before you lash out at me, please read the review & tell me where you think I unfairly judged something you enjoyed. In the end, we all have different tastes & we're allowed to have differing opinions. All in all, it was a weak year, but not as weak as the Oscar nominees make it appear! I will say, if Sean Penn wins, I'll be happy & will continue to watch future Oscar shows; If he doesn't win... bye,bye Lard-Oscar!
If you don't want to go 'public' on the blog, you can get a personal response from me at TDReid523@aol.com

12 comments:

movie luva said...

You forgot to give us your top 10 or whatever many films of the year.

When I have more time I'll come back tomorrow ( that's today ! ) and post on about your predictions and your personal picks.

movie luva said...

OK, I'm back to toss in my 7 cents tax.

First off my top 10 films of the year 2008.

1) Frozen River
2) THe Wrestler
3) Changeling
4) The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
5) Australia
6) The Dark Knight
7) Gran Torino
8) Milk
9) Burn After Reading
10) In Bruges

Just missed- Tropic Thunder, The Visitor, W, Iron Man, Slumdog Millionaire.

Oscar picks

First I want to make a comment about Mickey Rourke in his defense to the role he played and why I want him to win. I have told you before he isn't a favorite actor of mine, but I have liked some of his performace's. This role was bigger than life and outsized, that also has a sensitivity and some pathos in it. This is what I saw yesterday on what director Darren Aronofsky had to say about choosing Mickey for the role in a recent interview. Why he fought studio executives and was insistent on casting him. He mentioned that Rourke had the combination of emotional range, tragedy and physicality that the role required. He said that only a few actors could have given them that ( Nic Cage was first thought about ) The actor could provide a cool, macho, yet sensitive side, in a combination you rarely see. He was also very impressed at how professional Mickey was in his 6 months of training prior to the film with an Israeli cage fighter, that required a diet of 5,000 calories a day of protien, and staying out of the night clubs, and making an extereme effort. All this on 0 pay. Yes, the execs said Aronofsky could make the movie but couldn't pay Rourke, that he'd make his money on a percentage of what the movie made.

Now that's pretty impressive. I don't know if I could do that. And in the movie it shows. He's proven his he has serious chops, regardless of if you like him or not. It's one of the performances that transends the premise ( wrestling ) It's like a couple of sports movies I didn't like the particular sport, but that took a back seat to some good performance.

OK, so you know who I want to win best actor. Here's who I think will win Sunday night.

Picture
Slumdog Millionaire

Actor
Sean Penn ( they aren't going to sans two gay nominated movies back to back, plus Sean was great in it )

Actress
Kate Winslet ( Leo acts circles around her in Frozen River )

Supporting Actor
Heath Ledger ( Alive or dead )

Supporting Actress
Viola Davis ( her short time on screen turns the movie on it's head )

Director
Danny Boyle ( he had more to accomplish in the scheme of things )

Adapted SP
Slumdog Millionaire ( I say Doubt )

Original SP
Milk ( Frozen River gives it a run )

Cinematography
Benjamin Button ( should be Australia )

Editing
The Dark Knight

and I don't know anything else. Thank you for your time and good luck to anyone in any office pools or contest's.

blue stater said...

Favorites of 08

Gran Torino
Changeling
The Dark Knight
The Wrestler
Slumdog Millionaire
Religulous
Burn After Reading
Tropic Thunder
The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
Iron Man/Doubt ( tie )

My Oscars

Film

Changeling, Gran Torino, Tne Wrestler, Slumdog Millionaire, The Dark Knight

Actor
Clint Eastwood, Colin Farrell, Philip Seymour Hoffman, Sean Penn, Mickey Rourke.

Actress

Sally Hawkins, Angelina Jolie, Melissa Leo ( Just rented Frozen River last night ) Meryl Streep, Kate Winslet.

Supporting Actor

Josh Brolin, Robert Downey Jr. Heath Ledger, John Malkovich, Brad Pitt.

Supporting Actress

Viola Davis, Rosemarie DeWitt, Taraji P. Henson, Frances McDormand, Marisa Tomei.
( don't get the Cruz hype at all )

Director

Darren Aronofsky, Danny Boyle, Clint Eastwood, David Fincher, Christopher Nolan.

Kurt said...

Ah... you made your list finally ! Been looking for it. Or did you ? Oh, I see Oscar predictions.

My top 10

1. Changeling
2. The Dark Knight
3. Gran Torino
4. The Wrestler
5. Iron Man
6. Frozen River
7. Doubt
8. Milk
9. Slumdog Millionaire
10.Burn After Reading

Next

Valkyrie
The Reader
Wendy and Lucy
Australia
Wall-E

Oscars

Slumdog
Mickey Rourke
Kate Winslet
Penelope Cruz
Heath Ledger
Danny Boyle
Slumdog Millionaire- osp
Milk- asp
Benjamin Button- Cin.
The Dark Knight- Cutting
Benjamin Button- Clothes
Benjamin Button- sets
Benjamin Button- lipstick
Benjamin Button- Viz FX
Wall-E - Stuff you hear in the background
Doc- Man On Wire
Orther country- Waltz

Don't care about the weak ass songs chosen ( how dare you diss Bruce ! ) or anything else.

Terry R said...

Coming up with a Top 10 'favorite' list this year isn't easy for me. This will be one of those lists that will probably change dramatically over the years. I gave 15 films 'A' ratings in '08. Here they are in the order I liked them... (Prepare to gasp)
#1 MARLEY & ME
#2 AUSTRALIA
#3 DOUBT
#4 DEFIANCE
#5 CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
#6 GRAN TORINO
#7 CHANGELING
#8 RELIGULOUS
#9 VALKYRIE
#10 The VISITOR
11-15 TROPIC THUNDER, IRON MAN, BURN AFTER READING, IN BRUGES &
The DARK KNIGHT
16-20 (B+ Grades)
TRAITOR / The EXPRESS / GHOST TOWN / STOP-LOSS & SEVEN POUNDS

An easier list is my BOTTOM 10 because the runaway absolute worst movie of 2008 was...
WHAT HAPPENS IN VEGAS
2nd Worst - SISTERHOOD OF THE TRAVELING PANTS 2: The Way The Pants Would Have Wanted It To End
3rd-FOOL'S GOLD
4th-OVER HER DEAD BODY
5th-The LOVE GURU
6th-MADAGASCAR 2:Why Did We Go Back 2 This Again?
7th-WANTED
8th-ELEGY
9th-REVOLUTIONARY ROAD (Would have been #1, but Michael Shannon was outstanding in the only 2 memorbale scenes)
10th-RACHEL GETTING MARRIED
The bottom 20 would include -
My Best Friend's Girl
Mad Money
Drillbit Taylor
House Bunny
The Strangers
Pineapple Express
4 Christmases
21
Journey To The Center Of The Earth
& Slumdog Millionaire

movie luva said...

Oscar recap

No problem with Slumdog winning Best Picture. I think we all knew that 2 months ago. But it's not worthy of eight wins. No way should it have won Score, Editing and Cinematography though. The Dark Knight and Benjamin Button were the realistic technical darlings of 2008 and everyone in a real right mind know that. I am happy that Benjamin Button won 3 at least.

I thought it was very cool and unlike the usual Sean Penn, to talk about his 25 year friendship with Mickey Rourke, mentioning he was glad he wasn't a voter, in that he'd really have a difficult time of who he'd really vote for. I really took that to heart because Sean doesn't lay out too many compliments. Only to people he really respect's.

Could the acting wins have been so transparent though ? Too easy. I also have mixed feelings of the ceremony not going with the traditional past winner presenting the new winner. How do they think they could go wrong with Daniel Day-Lewis or Javier Bardem ? I am still on the fence about 5 individual's giving the presentation. I admit it was a cxhange but I like a clip to be shown and they didn't do that this time.

For my money the Independent Spirit Awards were way more entertaining. But they are always good. Mickey Rourke's speech was hilarious, threatening to beat Rainn Wilson's ass and mentioning wrestlers banging chicks in the bathroom. Philip Seymour Hoffman was cracking up ! I'm a chick and I thought that was funny as hell.

So it was a Slumdog year. What are we looking for this year ? Nine ? The Lovely Bones ? The Soloist ? Shutter Island ? Nottingham ? Public Enemies ? 1939 ? Sherlock Holmes ? The Human Factor ? The Last Station ? I'm not lying...I wouldn't know about these movies if I didn't pay attention to the end credits last night. Guffaw.

Didn't see a new movie this weekend, so we went and gave tribute to Gran Torino for it's exclusion to a Best Picture nomination. Great movie.

movie luva said...

Too many many wins for Slumdog. But I think we all resigned ourselves to know it was going to win Best Picture, but all of those techie awards, I just don't see it. At least Benjamin Button got the three it deserved. I was pulling for the Frozen River screenplay, but wasn't upset that Dustin Lance Black won for Milk either. My Oscar party I attended I did terrible. 14 out of 24. I went with my heart. And I have no idea ( does anybody ) about anything in the short subject categories. Total guesses.

I have already seen on two websites the next Oscar predictions. Hilary Swank as Amelia Earhart is aready getting early buzz. And one site had all the hyped about movies and I must say some look to have more promise. Maybe a little better than this past year ?

dbm said...

I just finnished watching the Peter Bogdanovich Tommy Petty documentary from the suggestion from the blog owner, and I must say I give it two big thumbs up. You can't be more informative than that. I say to anyone that visits this blog to rent it if you haven't seen it.

Terry R said...

Sean's victory was the highlight for me - the fact that he gave the best acceptance speech was icing on the cake ("I realize how hard I make it to appreciate someone like me.") He was funny, humble & sentimental & did all that while keeping it relatively short. It wasn;t hard to tell that he has a director's mind as well (self-editing)
Very disappointed in the 'Slumdog' love that was shown; never like to see mediocre product rewarded. I was so hoping they would show some class & bestow 'Benjamin Button' with Best Picture. When Oscar's biggest errors are discussed in a few years, this will undoubtedly be looked upon as a huge one.
I liked reading everyone's personal favorites more than the predictions. One thing I didn't get was the Viola Davis bandwagon; I thought the role was one-note & with very little screen time. You all saw 'The Visitor' - How can you say that Viola deserved a nomination over Hiam Abbass?
I agree with Movie luva on the presentation of the acting awards -One of my favorite things to do is try to predict what clip will be shown prior to the trophy being given - Plus, I'm sorry, but showing a complete wash-out like Cuba Gooding, Jr. made the ceremony look cheesy.
& yes, 2009 HAS to be better! But seeing a Tyler Perry movie top the box office, we aren't off to a great start, are we?

movie luva said...

Yes, February could possibly be the worst month of the year for movies. When Watchman comes out next week it'll be number one by a land slide. That was actually my last book club was Watchman. If it's anything like the graphic novel, it really isn't for kids. I think people not familar with the book have a misconception of the movie. That it's a super hero movie. It's only part that. It's Rated R for a good reason. That should be the top grosser for at least 3 weeks. Maybe more.

Then ever so slightly, better films will be coming along. I'm actually also looking forward to I Love You Man. The trailer looked pretty funny. And Paul Rudd is on bit of a roll. I think that is coming out soon as well.

Terry R said...

I'm wondering if any guy that has seen the trailer to 'I Love You, Man' wants to see that film. I don't. I looks like 'Sex & The City' with male leads. Straight guys don't 'date' - this is a blatant chick flick created to lure us into their world by using a catch phrase from a (very) old
beer commercial. Needless to say, I will probably be told we're going to see it by my wife & end up writing a homophobic review, though I don't consider myself to be homophobic. Sexual preference, like relgious beliefs should be everyone's choice - just don't try to make me believe what you believe - or think you're superior because you're in the majority.
Movie luva has proven repeatedly that she's a pretty sharp chick (She even pays taxes - not a lot, but 7 cents is better than nothing) so I'll be interested to read her take on the complete film. I will be going in with extremely low expectations - as I was with 'Role Models' which was a pleasant surprise. In fact, when I think about the way the plot played out in 'Role Models' it still baffles me that I liked it.
On 'Watchmen', I keep hearing how different its going to be from other comic book movies, but from someone that hasn't read a comic in over 35 years, the trailer looks like the same old, same old to me - In fact, it looks pretty silly - Like, X Men Meets The Fantastic 4, silly. But I'll give it a shot - I mean who can pass up seeing the movie version of the 'most celebrated comic book' of all-time? Really? Do people actually 'celebrate' comic books?

movie luva said...

I have a hard time calling Watchman a comic book. I prefer grapic novel. As comic book's usually don't have nudity in them. If you think The Dark Knight had a pretty dark tone to it, that doesn't have anything on Watchman. I just hope they didn't deviate from the book.

These are misfit super hero's, coming out of retirement to get revenge on things they feel they need to set right. There is also a ton of pop culture thrown in too that I found interesting. Supposedly the sountrack has some good songs and is pretty good.

The violence is pretty graffic. Not your standard Iron Man/Dark Knight comic book type violence. And there is also more cursing. I liked the Rorsschach character that will be played by Jackie Earle Haley. He's a misanthrope much like the Daniel Plainview was, but he's more muderous than Plainview. This guy is full of piss and vinegar, and doesn't give a you know what.

I was surprised at how many people in my book club, a lot female, liked the novel. Like I said, I hope the filmmakers don't mess it up, like so many adaptation's from book to film are.

Now I have to get back to the ol' grindstone.